Perhaps during my lifetime

Donaldson Tan

Recently, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said a nuclear power plant could be built in Singapore during his lifetime at the Singapore Energy Lecture in response to questions from the floor.

For the first time, the Prime Minister publicly hinted how likely nuclear power is coming to Singapore’s shores. However, during his speech, he also acknowledged the operational risks of nuclear power. “There are significant issues relating to safety and disposal of nuclear waste,” he said.

International Assistance

Harnessing nuclear energy is a highly complex and long-term enterprise no doubt. It is already a cause of concern that every ASEAN member state, with the exception of Brunei & Laos, has active plans to add nuclear power to their electricity mix.

In terms of scale, Vietnam has the most aggressive nuclear power ambitions. It recently announced plans to build eight plants by 2030, producing 16,000 MW of electricity. Indonesia plans to have four nuclear plants producing 6,000 MW by 2025. Thailand has plans to develop two nuclear plants to generate 2,000 MW by 2022. Singapore, which generates the majority of its power from increasingly scarce gas, has a feasibility plan for nuclear power under way.

Surely an international authority would help ASEAN and its member states in establishing civilian nuclear energy programs. The 1997 Bangkok Treaty confers the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as the competent authority for nuclear energy issues in ASEAN. However, being the sole competent global authority on nuclear energy, IAEA is not only limited by its small annual budget, it is also overstretched and thus there may not be enough capacity to go around. In fact, its 2010 budget is only €315.4 million despite a worldwide jurisdiction on nuclear energy issues.

Policy & Industry Challenges

In a brief encounter last year, Dr Selena Ng (Director, Asia-Pacific Business Development) of Areva (French state-owned nuclear energy firm) told New Asia Republic that political and economic stability and continuity over the long term are particular crucial for a successful civilian nuclear energy program. In particular, there has to be adequate financial resources through out the entire life cycle of the nuclear power plant. The life cycle represents at least a 100 years of committment from the government. The committment period consists of 3 stages: (1) preparation & implementation, which takes up 10 to 15 years; (2) operation, which takes up 60 years; and (3) decommissioning and waste disposal, which takes up to several decades.

She also added countries interested in establishing a civilian nuclear energy program must demonstrate commitment to using nuclear power for peaceful purpose. Furthermore, there has to be a comprehensive and robust nuclear legal framework which facilitates an effective regulatory system. It is also necessary to develop the necessary human resources required for the nuclear power sector, whether on the regulatory or industry side. Some of these points were echoed in the Prime Minister’s speech. “They [the ASEAN member states] must first build up their capability base, institute proper systems and standards and develop a strong safety culture before embarking on such projects,” said the Prime Minister.

The safety record of the nuclear power industry has to be interpreted with a pinch of salt. From the chart below, it is apparent that the nuclear power industry enjoys the best safety record in the energy sector. But such outcome is due to relatively small number of nuclear power plants, high quality of personnel and safety culture among established nuclear industry players in the USA, Europe and Japan. What remains to be seen is whether such quality and safety culture can simply be transplanted from one place to another, in particular Asia.

At the same time, many countries interested to adopt nuclear power are also unfamiliar with the administration of nuclear power, thus it is unsurprising that many nuclear industry players offer Operation & Maintenance (O&M) services on top of Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) in order to supplement the lack of domestic expertise in the nuclear industry. Also, at the same time, the nuclear industry players provide nuclear waste management services whereby the nuclear waste would be repatriated to the home country of the nuclear energy firm.

Non-Proliferation

However, nuclear waste management is offered due to compliance to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This is because Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) contains plutonium, a crucial ingredient for making a nuclear bomb. For example, Russian policy demands the clients of Russian nuclear energy firm Rosatom to repatriate the SNF used by the reactor to Russia rather than store or reprocess it at home or in another country. Russia can then store the used fuel and, at some point, extract the plutonium from the nuclear waste contained in the spent fuel rods and use it to make new nuclear fuel.

Compliance to such a policy is an important measure of committment to using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Non-compliance to the NPT can trigger serious repercussions, such as the trade sanctions imposed on Iran via United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1696, 1737 and 1747. However, this does not directly absolve ASEAN member states the responsibility of nuclear waste management.

The SNF will have to stay in the nuclear power plant for a period of at least 60 days to allows its radioactivity level to drop to a safer level to allow for transport and further handling. During the 60 days, the nuclear power plant and the host government are responsible for the security and safety of the SNF. On the other hand, it is not uncommon in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) countries to face public pressure & protests against shipment of nuclear waste where the repatriated SNF is processed and stored. There is certaintly risk in the repatriation of nuclear waste although it may be a public policy decision by the foreign government.