否极泰来
F1 降临新加坡，是繁荣的象征吗？
瑞银（UBS）的一项更新数据显示，新加坡的经济成长蛋糕和其他亚洲新兴工业经济体比较，更加来得不平均，工资低，物价高，国内购买力，在一高一低的比较下，就显得低了。和其他三小龙比较，我们最低，国内购买力的水平，只和马来西亚的吉隆坡差不多。
不要忘记，新加坡的人均收入是世界最高的国家之一，在亚洲也排名第二。为何购买力，却不如收入比我们低得国家，况且，我们的新元币值，也是世界最坚挺的货币之一，收入高，币值强，怎么会购买力跟不上？是不是我们的分配比其他国家和城市来得更加不公平？
瑞银在2009 年做过物价和收入以及购买力比较的类似调查，今年8月份，他们更新了最新的数据。作为国际上的大银行，瑞银的调查数据应该是中肯和可靠的。同时，新加坡政府投资公司也是瑞银的最大股东。最近因为交易员交易失当，瑞银亏损23亿美元的巨款，最终导致，总裁辞职下台。让原本应该高高兴兴在新加坡一级方程式赛车中，与瑞银贵客一起欢庆的日子，变得没有生气。
瑞银的报告，调查了世界主要的城市，包括欧美，日本，亚洲，非洲，美洲的城市。数据主要从三个方面来调查和比较这些城市的物价，工资和国内购买力。每个数据都以美国纽约为基数，即纽约的基本数是100。 物价，收入和购买力超过100的，就意味着高过纽约的水平。不过多数城市都低过纽约，只有几个欧洲城市高过纽约的生活水平。
以下的数据是新加坡和其他亚洲小龙经济体的比较。这个数据显示，新加坡的物价水平是这些城市中最高的， 比纽约的100 还要高。但是，工资水平却不是最高，只比香港高一点，但比首尔和台北来得低。物价和工资水平两相比较后，当然，新加坡的国内购买力，就肯定低过其他三小龙了。
表一：物价和收入以及购买力的比较
因此，在国内购买力方面，我们只比吉隆坡高出一点而已。
瑞银的国内购买力的数据分为三个数据：每小时的毛工资；每小时的净工资和年收入来计算。但是，不论是每小时的毛工资或是每小时的净工资，甚至年收入来计算，新加坡都比首尔，台北和香港来得低。
新加坡其实只能和亚细安国家城市比较才有优势。但是，新加坡的人均收入如此之高，但是却让吉隆坡跟得很近，只差一点点而已。这对我们来说，真是非常不愿意，我们一向很自豪，薪水收入比马来西亚高出几倍，但是，细算一下购买力，只不过高一点而已。
尤其是拿每小时工资的数据来比较，新加坡和吉隆坡的距离更被拉近了。下表显示，新加坡和吉隆坡，上海，北京的国内购买力的比较。 上海和北京跟我们还有一些距离，但是吉隆坡就没有什么大距离可言了。
表二：国内购买力比较（新加坡，吉隆坡，上海，北京）
幸好，亚细安国家中的其他三个城市，曼谷，马尼拉和雅加达的排名都在北京之后，离我们更远一些。
随着中国和亚细安其他国家的渐渐发展，尤其是中国的经济发展，收入大大增加后，这个购买力的距离，会进一步收缩。这就是为何新加坡的劳工政策面临一些问题，中国客工如果能够在中国找到更高收入的工作，他们还要来新加坡吗？
事实上，在北京，上海，和广州等主要城市，工人的薪金已经不低了。他们为何要来新加坡工作呢？我们一向以为以低工资，外劳税，来解决经济问题，工人不足的问题，看起来，未来的路不是这么容易走了。
瑞银的调查报告书，可以上网查看。
—
[Click here to download UBS's 2011 Prices & Earning Report]
Photo courtesy of F1-site.com
The strength of the Sing dollars contributed to the resulting “High Price Levels”. The government have already spent billions trying to prevent the Sing dollars from going up too much… how much more of our reserves do you want to spend?
With the recent appreciation of US dollars, the numbers in the table you shown would also be changed drastically… especially against HK dollars which is pegged to the US dollars.
Had we pegged our Sing dollars against the US dollars, we would have a much much higher inflation rate. This will be even more unbearable for the lower income group.
Looking at just a few tables and making all these inferences is not very professional to say the least.
This article reminds me of 瞎子摸象
http://www.vastman.com/fable/traditional/zgyygs397.htm
Things are not as simple as they seem….
Dear Ah Beng:
I am just curious as to how the government needs to spend money to prevent its currency from going up?
This is because it will usually accumulate foreign exchange reserves and sell of local currency, and increase currency supply so that it will be devalued.
On the other hand, it will have to give up its foreign exchange reserves, and reduce supply of local currency to appreciate the dollar in times of crisis to prevent dollars from depreciating. In such cases, the depletion of FOREX can be a concern.
Preventing sg dollars from appreciating simply involves accumulating FOREX.
Hi Kelvin Teo,
I like to point you to this article:
http://stgallenmba.ch/evenett/2011/09/17/can-the-swiss-national-bank-tame-the-strong-swiss-franc-if-so-is-it-worth-it/
Whatever the Swiss franc faces, we have similar problems too…
It is not as simple as buying more foreign reserves… there are MANY implications such as influx of hot money, carry trade due to interest rates differentials, etc…
It is not so easy to be a central banker.. just ask Bernanke….
On the other hand, it is very easy to quote a few tables and make wild
accusations…
I guess you were probably saying managing capital inflows and interest rates, which was mentioned in the Swiss article. I may add currency speculators is also another one, e.g. when George Soros took on governments
Of course, even the part about buying foreign reserves can be forced on by the government by the investors, if you read up investpedia. I just didn’t get quite what were you saying when you mentioned earlier that the government needs to spend. However, the rest is fine.
However, the article also pointed out one phenomenon unique to the Swiss, carry trade, where investors borrow in Swiss francs in expectation that the currency will depreciate so that they can return to less, as you mentioned carry trade. However, that will depend on interest rates too, relative to other countries.
It is not really about the government spending billions, a central banker is different from a normal goods seller or service provider..they can accumulate FOREX, adjust interest rates, print money..