An interesting contest for the Tan quartet

Chan Jia Hui

So, the verdict is out. The Elections Department issued Certificates of Eligibility to all four candidates surnamed Tan – Dr Tony Tan, Dr Tan Cheng Bock, Mr Tan Kin Lian and Mr Tan Jee Say.

This development is also a historic first as the Elections Department elected to explain why the Tan quartet received their certificates. The Department’s press release also explained why 2 of the 6 candidates, Mr Andrew Kuan and Mr Ooi Boon Ewe failed to receive their certificates.

This came after Law Professor Thio Li Ann’s presentation at an Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) forum titled “Roles, Responsibilities and Power of the Elected President on Friday.” The don opined that there should a legal requirement for the Presidential Elections Committee (PEC) to reveal their decisions when they award the certificates.

The PEC evaluates potential candidates for their integrity, good character and reputation, in addition to their aptitude and previous experience in managing financial matters. Thio explained that the failure to receive certificate may potentially be an attack of the non-recipient’s character as one who is “not of good character”.

Meanwhile, there have been interesting developments during the lead up to the contest. It is starting to look like déjà vu with 7 National Trade Union Congress (NTUC)-affiliated trade unions endorsing Tony Tan.

Mr Ong Teng Cheong also had the support of NTUC when he contested the 1993 Presidential Elections. The union mobilised 230,000 of its own members to canvass at least 5 votes each for Ong. Like Ong, Tony was also a Deputy Prime Minister and had the backing of the current Prime Minister.

Currently, an Internet poll run by Yahoo! news site shows Tan Cheng Bock as the runaway leader at 41%, followed closely by Tan Jee Say at 30%. Tony Tan and Tan Kin Lian both occupy 3rd and 4th place at 21% and 6% respectively.

How the contest will shape up will be interesting. If voters vote according to the PAP/non-PAP divide, Tan Jee Say has a good chance of securing votes from those who tend to vote for opposition. However, it looks less certain for Tan Cheng Bock and Tan Kin Lian.

Tan Kian Lian has been associated with the opposition, giving speeches at the latter’s rallies, but in terms of being in the opposition mould, he is less so as compared with Tan Jee Say. The latter threw his lot with the opposition and contested in Holland-Bukit Timah GRC. This may explain why opposition-faithful voters have no hesitation in voting for Tan Jee Say on the basis of his candidature in opposition colours.

Similarly for the PAP-faithfuls, their choice isn’t going to be a difficult one. Since Tony is backed by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and is now endorsed by 7 NTUC-affiliated trade unions, he is obviously going to be the natural choice of such voters (NTUC enjoys close links with the PAP).

This leaves us with Tan Kin Lian and Tan Cheng Bock. It appears likely that their votes will come from swing votes from PAP and non-PAP supporting voters, and middle ground voters.

However, among the four, Tan Kin Lian and Tan Jee Say both still have a long political career ahead of them. Their successful receipt of the Certificate of Eligbility is a definite boost to their “political credibility” in the voters’ eyes.

At least, it shows they currently possess integrity and possess good character and reputation, in addition to having sufficient experience managing financial affairs. That in itself is already considered a feather in the cap.

There is no guarantee that either of Tan Kin Lian or Tan Jee Say will win this election, though the latter has a better chance of the two. However, especially for Tan Jee Say whom many speculate will return to opposition politics if unsuccessful during this presidential election, he has already raised his political mileage and profile through his presidential contest.

Added with his new found political credibility when he received his Certificate of Eligibility, he will return to opposition politics with a hugely improved stature, that’s if he chooses to assuming he doesn’t win this Presidential contest.