The day the Internet died

Donaldson Tan

Internet Traffic in Egypt coming to a standstill at 1745h, 27 JAN 2011

Internet Traffic in Egypt coming to a standstill at 1745h, 27 JAN 2011

So the Internet and other communication networks died in Egypt, apparently as a stop-gap measure by the Mubarak government to limit the spread of dissent. Twitter and Facebook have been cited as the methods by which protesters are organising themselves. It is a little surprising that some political punters think that New Media is a game-changer in repressive political regimes such as Egypt and extend the same logic to Singapore. Former MediaCorp journalist Nazry Bahrawi wrote in the South China Morning Post:

If street protests in Tunisia and Egypt demonstrate a proclivity among the masses for greater democracy, then it is the blogosphere that works the magic for Singapore’s citizens.”

According to Bahrawi, the registration of The Online Citizen is a “potential eureka moment for the common man” because this not only disproves the myth that Singaporeans are politically apathetic, but also it signals the abolishment of the Out-of-Boundary (OB) marker that a citizen has to be a member of a political party before he is qualified to publicly criticise public policies. However, the aforementioned OB marker was already abolished back in 2006 when bloggers defied the ban on online election advertisement during the 2006 Singapore General Election without any legal repercussions. Nevertheless, the emergence of a political blogosphere is growing evidence that political apathy is not as widespread as it was perceived to be.

Yet Bahrawi missed the most important point about the role of social media in Egypt’s uprising – coordination. From a potential protester’s perspective, there is a high private cost for protesting. This private cost only pays off if enough protesters show up to protest. If a critical mass of protesters does not show up, then individual protester would be in hot water. However, through Facebook or Twitter, the potential protester can now check the momentum of the protest without having to walk in the streets first. This facilitates the decision-making process of the potential protester.

Transplanting the coordination problem to Singapore, one would realise that it is not for protesting but rather voting at the next General Election. From a voter’s perspective, there is a perceived high private cost for voting opposition political parties. This private cost only pays off if there are enough votes for the Opposition. However, through Facebook, the voter can now check the momentum of each political party without having to walk in the streets first. This is where the insertion of last names such as “VotingRP” or “NotVotingPAP” into the names of one’s Facebook account plays an important role in rallying political support.

By shutting down the internet, the Mubarak government signals to the public that it is worried about a critical mass of showing up in the first place. In retrospect, this shut down is similar to the Cooling-Off Day. Except for party political broadcasts and news reports, there are to be no more social media updates pertaining to General Election, mass rallies, door-to-door visits and even display of party symbols during Cooling-Off Day. As soon as campaign period is over, the absence of clues (both online and offline) reintroduces the coordination problem for voters on Cooling-Off Day and Polling Day.

One could infer that the ruling party PAP is concerned on the emergence of critical mass of votes for the Opposition. In December 2009, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced the introduction of Cooling-Off Day via Channel News Asia:

I think 24 hours after the last excitement of the election campaign period, the rallies, the door-to-door campaigning, the adrenaline flowing, the clash in the mass media as well as in person, perambulating vans blaring away loud speakers, it’s good to have 24 hours to just calm down, think about it – tomorrow we vote.”

Does the introduction of Cooling-Off Day make more sense now? The argument of voter rationality holds no water.

This article was originally published on 2 FEB 2011.

Read also: Egypt protesters react angrily to Mubarak’s televised address