Donaldson Tan
So the Internet and other communication networks died in Egypt, apparently as a stop-gap measure by the Mubarak government to limit the spread of dissent. Twitter and Facebook have been cited as the methods by which protesters are organising themselves. It is a little surprising that some political punters think that New Media is a game-changer in repressive political regimes such as Egypt and extend the same logic to Singapore. Former MediaCorp journalist Nazry Bahrawi wrote in the South China Morning Post:
According to Bahrawi, the registration of The Online Citizen is a “potential eureka moment for the common man” because this not only disproves the myth that Singaporeans are politically apathetic, but also it signals the abolishment of the Out-of-Boundary (OB) marker that a citizen has to be a member of a political party before he is qualified to publicly criticise public policies. However, the aforementioned OB marker was already abolished back in 2006 when bloggers defied the ban on online election advertisement during the 2006 Singapore General Election without any legal repercussions. Nevertheless, the emergence of a political blogosphere is growing evidence that political apathy is not as widespread as it was perceived to be.
Yet Bahrawi missed the most important point about the role of social media in Egypt’s uprising – coordination. From a potential protester’s perspective, there is a high private cost for protesting. This private cost only pays off if enough protesters show up to protest. If a critical mass of protesters does not show up, then individual protester would be in hot water. However, through Facebook or Twitter, the potential protester can now check the momentum of the protest without having to walk in the streets first. This facilitates the decision-making process of the potential protester.
Transplanting the coordination problem to Singapore, one would realise that it is not for protesting but rather voting at the next General Election. From a voter’s perspective, there is a perceived high private cost for voting opposition political parties. This private cost only pays off if there are enough votes for the Opposition. However, through Facebook, the voter can now check the momentum of each political party without having to walk in the streets first. This is where the insertion of last names such as “VotingRP” or “NotVotingPAP” into the names of one’s Facebook account plays an important role in rallying political support.
By shutting down the internet, the Mubarak government signals to the public that it is worried about a critical mass of showing up in the first place. In retrospect, this shut down is similar to the Cooling-Off Day. Except for party political broadcasts and news reports, there are to be no more social media updates pertaining to General Election, mass rallies, door-to-door visits and even display of party symbols during Cooling-Off Day. As soon as campaign period is over, the absence of clues (both online and offline) reintroduces the coordination problem for voters on Cooling-Off Day and Polling Day.
One could infer that the ruling party PAP is concerned on the emergence of critical mass of votes for the Opposition. In December 2009, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced the introduction of Cooling-Off Day via Channel News Asia:
Does the introduction of Cooling-Off Day make more sense now? The argument of voter rationality holds no water.
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This article was originally published on 2 FEB 2011.
Read also: Egypt protesters react angrily to Mubarak’s televised address
Kudos for this important rejoinder to my SCMP piece. In the interest of progress, it is important to debate ideas.
In this light, you’ve raised an important point on coordination, and outlined a persuasive hypothesis. While I did not mention it in my piece, I believe this is a crucial point indeed.
However, I would like to respond to certain assumptions that you have made of my piece. First, I believe you may have misinterpreted my point in the following line: “If street protests in Tunisia and Egypt demonstrate a proclivity among the masses for greater democracy, then it is the blogosphere that works the magic for Singapore’s citizens.”
Here, I was not making any link between the role of the social media as a ‘game-changer’ in Egypt and Singapore. Rather, I have highlighted ‘street protests’ as a phenomenon that demonstrates how Egyptians desire greater democratisation in their society. In Singapore, I see the ‘blogosphere’ as having been the same vehicle for Singaporeans to express this same desire. Thus the link between the two nations is not the social media’s role as a game-changer, but the desire for greater democratisation in its people’s psyche. This is not to say that the social media did not play any role at all in Egypt or Tunisia.
You have also inferred this from my piece: “[I]t signals the abolishment of the Out-of-Boundary (OB) marker that a citizen has to be a member of a political party before he is qualified to publicly criticise public policies.”
Here, I did not conclude that the TOC’s move signals an abolishment of the above cited OB marker nor did I deduce it to be about a person’s ‘qualification’ to critically engage with public policies. Rather, my point was that the ‘desire’ for the common man to be openly engaging in criticising policies could have been stoked further by the TOC’s move. Yet, I do agree that the bloggers’ move to defy the ban on online election advertisement can be taken as similarly encouraging, though in my opinion, it was not as strong a motivation for the masses to embrace political activism as this latest incidence.
Thanks again for engaging.
In addition, the coordination problem would only materialise after the writ of election has been issued. As showed by the AWARE Saga, people would only begin to look up for clues and other information when the crunch comes and in this case it would be GE itself. For now, while people may be complaining on specific issues that affect their lives, there is no need for them to narrow their choice to a specific political parties since the writ hasn’t been issued, thus there is no coordination problem as of now.
EGYPT INTERNET COMES BACK ONLINE
22.43 (Singapore Time). 02/02/2011. BBC
Internet access in Egypt appears to have returned to normal, according to firms measuring traffic levels in the country.
Facebook and Twitter are now available and the four major Egyptian internet service providers are back in business.
They all had services cut last week, following mass protests against President Hosni Mubarak.
Net measurement firm Renesys said there were no traffic blocks in place any more.
“We confirm that Facebook and Twitter are up and available inside Egypt,” it said in its blog.
The government crackdown on net services left millions of Egyptians without access.
But Egyptians quickly found ways around the blocks and on 1 February Google introduced a “speak-to-tweet” service which allowed people to connect to Twitter via the telephone.
Other traffic monitoring firms, including Arbor Networks, confirmed that net access was returning to normal.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-12346929
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