Timor-Leste: New State on the Bloc

Min Cheong

President José Ramos-Horta Speaking at the IISS-Asia seminar on Timor-Leste and its Regional Relations

President José Ramos-Horta Speaking at the IISS-Asia seminar on Timor-Leste and its Regional Relations

Gracing a seminar organised by The International Institute for Strategic Studies – Asia (IISS-Asia) and supported by the Australian Department of Defence, President of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, H.E. Dr José Ramos-Horta, spoke to invited guests at Raffles Hotel on the 1st of December, covering the topic “Timor-Leste and its Regional Relations”.

President Ramos-Horta’s palaver revolved around Timor-Leste’s evolution; from a Portuguese colony that was invaded by Indonesia in 1975 during a 24-year period struggle for independence of which it gained in 2002 to a rapidly developing young democracy poised to become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world (albeit within a contraction-rebound context).

In his address, Ramos-Horta emphasised the nascent socio-political stability and economic progress in Timor-Leste, attributed to a focus on reconstructing the state’s security architecture with help from Australia and New Zealand, reducing civil-military tensions through collaboration with the UN Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT) and UN Police (UNPOL) as well as the implementation of a more efficient system of taxation; one that would not punish the poor and stifle the country’s development.

The President further elaborated on his government’s commitment to achieving the United Nation’s Millenium Development Goals (MDGs), stating that in the last few years, school enrolments had burgeoned from 63%-84%, child mortality figures halved and poverty alleviated by a drop of 9%.

Indeed, healthcare has certainly improved, owing to increased medical facilities and a growing number of doctors, both foreign and local – some Timorese citizens have received state sponsorship to pursue degrees in medicine.

Education and youth-development are also taken seriously; schools are being built all over the country and Ramos-Horta himself inaugurated a programme to keep children occupied and off the streets. Timorese aged 60 and above are awarded a monthly pension of US$30 to help them purchase necessities.

Besides that, micro-financing incentives such as the disbursement of US$250 000 in total to various villages to encourage economic growth have culminated in the emergence of new markets and subsistence enterprise.

Timor-Leste is additionally thriving upon an influx of foreign investment, particularly from China and Japan, as a result of low operational costs and a peaceful internal environment. With mounting regional interest in Timor-Leste, the President divulged plans to develop the telecommunications and renewable energy sectors as well as promote the nation’s tourism industry.

Ramos-Horta also highlighted Timor-Leste’s Norwegian-modelled Petroleum Fund, a key component of the country’s resource-management framework, aimed at wealth-accumulation for the benefit of its inhabitants via amassing revenue created by the sales of Timor-Leste’s oil and hydrocarbon resources for the purposes of generating vast domestic savings as well as for strategic global investments.

By 2023, the Bayu Undan gas field in Timor-Leste will alone garner an estimated US$12-15 billion and the contents of other known oil wells are touted to be able to fill trillions of barrels, a good indication of how successful the Petroleum Fund is likely to be.

Projections of strong non-oil economic growth are also indicative of Timor-Leste’s ability to contribute to its own development as well as that of the region’s nations as a result of spillover progress in other areas.

On the global front, Ramos-Horta elucidated the state’s participation in international peacekeeping and disaster-relief missions, with regard to the military’s presence in Lebanon, Sudan and Kosovo, and articulated Timor-Leste’s intent to foster continued cooperation in the aspect of humanitarian assistance with neighbouring countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

It is this compelling inclination to extol socio-political altruism and benevolence that has led Ramos-Horta towards soft diplomacy. His foreign policy embodies sophistication and finesse rare in the current global political milieu where Realism and brinkmanship often overpower Liberalism.

As an outcome and congruent to his agenda of presenting Timor-Leste as a responsible and engaged constituent of the Asia-Pacific region, Ramos-Horta has been working predominantly on normalising post-reconciliation relations with Indonesia and fortifying Timorese-Australian ties; an approach crucial to the nation’s geopolitical security, stability and advancement.

His willingness to adopt a conciliatory stance in dealing with Indonesian leadership has paved the way for peaceful coexistence and cultivated mutual respect between the people and governments of both countries. Also, despite encountering conflicts with Australia over a shared maritime border and the location of the Greater Sunrise oil and gas field pipeline terminus, Ramos-Horta describes Timor-Leste’s relations with the former as exemplary.

Extrapolating upon relations with other countries in the region, the President singled out highly positive links between Timor-Leste and China (the latter had previously constructed Timor-Leste’s Presidential Palace as a gift and had sold two patrol boats to the state) which would be reinforced vis-a-vis trade.

Ramos-Horta is also a firm advocate of Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) membership, and has channelled diplomatic resources into lobbying for accession.

Expressing optimism at the prospect of admission, the President announced that most of the regional bloc’s ten member-states were agreeable to Timor-Leste’s inclusion. He was particularly enthusiastic about attaining membership under Indonesia’s chairmanship in 2011 because it would elevate both Indonesia’s statesmanship as well as ASEAN as an organisation and went on to raise the possibility of Timor-Leste assuming a central role in resolving the political impasse within Myanmar.

Timor-Leste’s membership would indeed be advantageous to ASEAN, bringing with its accession oil and gas related economic opportunities, cheap labour, an increase in jobs, a source of agricultural produce (including much coveted cash-crops such as coffee, cotton and vanilla), a credible proponent of democracy as well as closer ties to Australia and possibly Europe for historical reasons.

In turn, Timor-Leste would profit from the access to existing ASEAN infrastructure and its numerous institutions such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which would ameliorate knowledge and technological transfer, augment foreign investment as well as stimulate and sustain trade.

However, it remains to be seen whether Timor-Leste will be able to fulfil membership-preparation criteria in the aspects of human capital, diplomatic institutions and financial capacity. Still, on a favourable note, ASEAN member-states appear keen on buttressing the efforts of the Timorese government; of note because no other ASEAN nation had received this intense a level of attention and aid prior to accession.

As such, the future holds much promise for Timor-Leste and the region; an outcome which is testament to the wisdom and political mastery of President José Ramos-Horta.

_____

About the IISS-Asia:

The International Institute of Strategic Studies-Asia (IISS-Asia) is the primary source, within Asia, of accurate, objective information on international strategic issues for politicians, foreign affairs analysts, business, economists, the military, the media, academics and the informed public. The Institute is independent, owing no allegiance to any governments or any political or other governments. The IISS Asia stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.